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Lot 46
POINCARÉ ON CHANCE AND PROBABILITY. POINCARÉ, HENRI. 1854-1912. Autograph Manuscript Signed ("Henri Poincaré"), "Le Hasard," a final draft (printer's copy) of his important epistemological analysis of chance,
31 March – 8 April 2025, 12:00 EDT
Online, New YorkUS$30,000 - US$50,000
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POINCARÉ ON CHANCE AND PROBABILITY.
POINCARÉ, HENRI. 1854-1912. Autograph Manuscript Signed ("Henri Poincaré"), "Le Hasard," a final draft (printer's copy) of his important epistemological analysis of chance, 4to (310 x 202 mm), 17 pp written in French, ink on paper, with numerous emendations and additions in the hand of the author, headnotes in another hand, Paris, 1907, published in Revue du Mois 3 (1907), pp 257–276.
"Chance is only the measure of our ignorance."
–Henri Poincaré, "Le Hasard."
THE UNKNOWABLE SCIENTIFICALLY ANALYZED – Poincaré determines the nature of chance and probability. One of Poincaré's most influential philosophic statements, his 1907 "Le Hasard" brought a scientific rationality to the elusive nature of chance — providing a methodological framework for understanding chance and probability. Poincaré endorsed an "epistemological determinism" which viewed science as a mathematical explanatory system that modeled the phenomena. Whether or not the real causal relations underlying a phenomena are known — and in the case of chance, they are not known — Poincaré conceived science's primary task to be the devising of an epistemic framework within which the phenomena can be meaningfully measured and discussed (if not fully or optimally explained). In keeping with this philosophic perspective, Poincaré famously defines chance to be "the measure of our ignorance," or the degree to which we do not know the true causal relations operative within a phenomenon, and his essay proceeds to demonstrate that probability instantiates chance epistemically.
A product of Poincaré's mature conception of science, "Le Hasard" was one of the last papers Poincaré authored. His motivation toward writing this work is in good measure due to his work with celestial mechanics and the three-body problem, which laid the foundation for modern chaos theory. Poincaré himself thought the paper of considerable importance, republishing it twice, including as the introduction to his final published work, also on probability and chance, Calcul des Probabilités, 1912. In 1956, James R Newman affirmed the essay's merit and significance by selecting if for his best-selling collection of the most important works in the history of mathematics, The World of Mathematics.
Poincaré was the greatest French scientist of the 19th-century, achieving renown as a mathematician and as a physicist, and in his later years, attaining prominence as the leading 19th-century philosopher of science. Poincaré's work and thought anticipated many of the revolutionary developments of 20th-century physics; and indeed, the topic and focus of the present manuscript prefigure the philosophic debates that characterized the quantum era. Scientific manuscripts by Poincaré rare in commerce; and lacking even in the most distinguished institutional collections.
"Chance is only the measure of our ignorance."
–Henri Poincaré, "Le Hasard."
THE UNKNOWABLE SCIENTIFICALLY ANALYZED – Poincaré determines the nature of chance and probability. One of Poincaré's most influential philosophic statements, his 1907 "Le Hasard" brought a scientific rationality to the elusive nature of chance — providing a methodological framework for understanding chance and probability. Poincaré endorsed an "epistemological determinism" which viewed science as a mathematical explanatory system that modeled the phenomena. Whether or not the real causal relations underlying a phenomena are known — and in the case of chance, they are not known — Poincaré conceived science's primary task to be the devising of an epistemic framework within which the phenomena can be meaningfully measured and discussed (if not fully or optimally explained). In keeping with this philosophic perspective, Poincaré famously defines chance to be "the measure of our ignorance," or the degree to which we do not know the true causal relations operative within a phenomenon, and his essay proceeds to demonstrate that probability instantiates chance epistemically.
A product of Poincaré's mature conception of science, "Le Hasard" was one of the last papers Poincaré authored. His motivation toward writing this work is in good measure due to his work with celestial mechanics and the three-body problem, which laid the foundation for modern chaos theory. Poincaré himself thought the paper of considerable importance, republishing it twice, including as the introduction to his final published work, also on probability and chance, Calcul des Probabilités, 1912. In 1956, James R Newman affirmed the essay's merit and significance by selecting if for his best-selling collection of the most important works in the history of mathematics, The World of Mathematics.
Poincaré was the greatest French scientist of the 19th-century, achieving renown as a mathematician and as a physicist, and in his later years, attaining prominence as the leading 19th-century philosopher of science. Poincaré's work and thought anticipated many of the revolutionary developments of 20th-century physics; and indeed, the topic and focus of the present manuscript prefigure the philosophic debates that characterized the quantum era. Scientific manuscripts by Poincaré rare in commerce; and lacking even in the most distinguished institutional collections.